Foreign influences (episode 6)
How young Russian waitresses can understand political situations before and better than an EU bubbles.
Russian influence, election monitoring, election meddling, Foreign Interference, propaganda, disinformation, European policy, Transparency, democracy… In the world of OSINT and Disinformation, we are using all these words in every report, study, research, briefing or LinkedIn posts. But in Georgia, it was really happening, with real people, all of this and all at once. It would happen not on the internet, not on networks, not AI or Twitter, but on billboards in the streets, in physical polling stations, in a real parliament, in demonstrations.
So, we went to spend two weeks in Tbilisi, one before the elections, one after. This is a subjective view, in multi-episodes, of what I saw and understood.
This is a tale about European style democracy fighting Russian style authoritarianism in a small country at the crossroad of four continents.
Thanks, Eva Bauchau, for context, expertise, contacts and on-site support.
(This is the 6th episode. Previous episode here)
So, this was not so much joy time. The opposition did not seam to have such plan. They spoke about doing investigations to collect proofs of embezzlement. The president had done a series of interviews to foreign media, and elected MPs intended not to set foot in the parliament. I had hoped for Zourabichvili to come to the stage at the demonstration and to say, with the French accent, “I spoke to NATO buddies, they send the tanks, tomorrow it’s cleared up.”
I know, high hopes.
Here it was emanating a bit the long-term depression of the waiting for the maybes of the after, and while waiting, let us wait.
Then, the crisis lasts. EU partners come to “solve” it and, in broad strokes, tell Georgians to accept their fate and to wait for the next elections and to do another try in four years.
These elections had been the target of all, and every kind of rigging and interference known to mankind. In a country that was so European they were putting the European anthem in the end of the demonstrations and people were listening with hand on the heart. This crossroad country was a crossroad choice between Putin like authoritarianism and European like democracy.
And what would Europe be doing? Play a ball game of throwing to each other responsibilities? “Foreign / not foreign”? Our house / not our house? Their influence zone, not their influence zone? Russian / Not Russian?
Georgia was Europe but actually not, they were not member yet. About to be but there was some trouble with their application. It was Russian interference and meddling into the election, but in fact it was not, it was local fascists, not pro-Russian but…
One could admire in the communiqués from the EU, the inanity of this “foreign – not foreign” policy. Orban, Rotating president of European Union, had rushed to Tbilisi to officialise victory of his fascist allies. Josep Borrell had to declare That the president of the Eu was not officially speaking for the EU and had no power over foreign diplomacy. During the demonstration a Georgian friend had shown me the tweet laughing. Shame on us…
Bundled up in stupidity of “foreign- not foreign” and the myth of “Russian meddling” and “foreign interference”, we were paralysed by international fascism. Problem was not Russia, it was Putin. And Orban who was allowed to run through his playbook for decades, because Orban was not “foreign” you get it? If Russia was democratic its influence would be welcome. And Orban is European and his influence, coming from the heart of Europe, is perfectly harmful.
Now would be a good time to understand. In a few days, the biggest of western democracy could maybe fall AGAIN in the hands of a fascist. What would we do then? Put the label “FIMI” on the Qanon lunacy emanating from the oval office? (Yes this was written before Trump election. And yes, this one also I did not see coming.)
What was even more frustrating was that fascists actually really were 6 or 7 years late. They were fighting yesterday’s war. To elect Trump with the help of Elon Musk desperately trying to give him back his twitter account, that was so old and déjà vu playbook. Here in Georgia, it was exactly the same movie they had been showing the previous elections.
We had the playbooks, the Tactics, the Techniques and the Procedures, the analysis and the “data”, we just had forgotten to be against fascism…
From the East
“How did you arrive in Georgia?” I ask.
“In March last year, through Armenia. We moved here for 9 months. We can’t meet in our countries.”
E. is a young Russian waitress coming from Siberia. Her boyfriend is Swedish, he can’t come to meet her in Russia, and she can’t come to meet him in Sweden, so Georgia it is.
“We came through Kazakhstan, then Armenia, then Georgia”.
I ask her how she finds it here, politically.
“They have more right here, they can protest. But it feels it does not work”. I ask her if she went to demonstrate. “No, I’m afraid. I have no rights here”.
The right to protest is not universal. I keep forgetting that…
“It is not true that they don’t like Russians here” (I asked the question) “Actually I even met a lot of pro-Putin people here, it is quite scary”. She is still smiling. “I never really met people against me” She thinks about it for a bit, and, in fact, recalls 2 cases. “Only two situations in 9 months”. “One time I asked a guy for a cigarette. He says yes and he gets a cigarette out and tears apart a bit and give it to me saying “so you see what it feels to have 20% of your country occupied”. But he was yet friendly” she adds.
She will be the first one I meet that did not believe the opposition had any chance to win. It is not depression or pessimism, because she has a wide smile and intense happy face when she answers all my questions. Just another form of political perspicuity.
I asked her about the elections, she does not really see the difference with or without it. “Of course, I know what happens in the countries where I travel but it just feels nothing will change.”
For her we are in a Tbilisian bubble. Out of big cities, people care more for stability and salaries than for change.
“In Tbilisi it is more progressive but in villages people do not care”.
She met plenty of people who would love Russia and the Russians. “Just progressive people and pro-European you can find them in big cities”. She does not say it like a revelation or a better knowing person “it just feels like it, it is just my perception”. She tells me in Russia it is a bit like that also. Progressive cities versus small villages…
I ask her about the situation in Russia. She struggles to even find the words. “It is terrible. Even hard to explain or describe”.
Obviously, some recognisable elements here and there… “It is kind of similar situation with Army, Police and propaganda making us scared of everything. But then you travel here, and you do not feel safe either.” She has rights nowhere.
“I love my country; I hate what the government is doing to it. I just hope it evolves someday.” I told her that Putin will die someday, and before her obviously. She answers that he is not alone and there are people around him ready to take power when he is gone. “And what they are doing to the opposition is also terrible. They are in prison or sent to another country”.
She does not personalise. No “him”, no “he”, no “Putin”, she says “the government”. Fascism is not one guy…
And the opposition is divided. “They are fighting with each other. It is terrible that they don’t see the need to unify against a common enemy…”
“But people are scared. Government and Police, they are scaring people”. And of course there is no justice. “There is no court. They are all corrupted. When you go to trial, you will always be found guilty”.
Right of association is, to my experience, the very first pilar of democracy. It is the right that allows the creation of a civil society that can act as a counter power. It is the fulfillment of one of the primary instincts of political humans: to gather as a group. This is the reason why authoritarianism will always attack this right first. With a Russian law against NGOs for instance. And then…
“In Russia you can’t protest. It is forbidden for people to gather. It is not allowed to even have a piece of paper, let alone a protest sign.”
“It is sad for my country because we are losing all the brains. People in economy, science, or other sector they simply moved away”. They would be the ones you need to get the country back together…
“Of course it is good for the government. People who stay are those who would agree with them.”
She is fascinated by how the people are able to decorrelate the disastrous economic situation in Russia from the government. She tells me the story of this man who is asked if he likes Putin, and he answers every kind of praise he can think about, and then he is directly asked about the economic situation and he answers every kind of curse to the situation.
“In big cities we have progressive people, but for them we have a lot of police”.
“People are so scared we even get back to old soviet jokes. Like the one that says you can only speak in the kitchen” (I found this article for context about the importance of the kitchen in political discussions in Russia.)
“When you say something bad about Putin you have the instinct to look around”.
Even here in Georgia, some Russians talked to journalists and did interviews, filmed. They can’t go back to Russia…
She did not lose her happy smiley face…
I ask her if she had the chance to travel a bit around the world.
“I went to Ukraine, when it was still Ukraine in 2010. And in Kazakhstan, Armenia and Georgia. But I am not a rich person. And to travel I need cash…” Yes because her banking system does not work in every country… “A lot of people they would set up bank accounts in Kazakhstan or Armenia”.
“Also, I don’t have a remote job. I work in hospitality, restaurants, bars…” So, when she is travelling, she can’t earn money. I ask her why she does not take a job here.
She laughs “Because with the salary here you just would not survive. It is the biggest issue in Georgia. The people I don’t know how they survive.”
She reminds me that, during the rigging of the elections, some people would get paid 20 Lari for their votes. This is like 7 euros…
No rights here, no rights in Russia. Democracy, this place on earth where she can just be, is still a dream. Even I start to wonder if it exists. Does it really? If it can’t exist for her? For everyone?
“I would like to live somewhere where I am a person. Somewhere where the government serves you or pretend to serve you at least.”
She pauses. Still the happy face.
“I don’t know if it actually works, however. I only see my country. Maybe I will not like it after trying it.”
Dreams can only exist because there is a possibility for them to become real. Somewhere or somehow in alternate time and space, the possibility of the dream to become a reality must remain for the dream to exist. Remove that possibility and the democracy dream will simply fade away.
“Life in Russia it is so cheap, and service are the best. But salaries not good. But unlike here, the life is cheap at least”
Here in Georgia, she thinks they are not doing so bad. “They grow the economy.” And she is a bit impressed how they managed to be both Russian and European at the same time and neither one nor the other.
In fact, this is also exactly how Georgian Dream managed to win these elections.
“I don’t think they will ever go to Europe. This is why the government tries to reconnect with Russia”.
I ask why she thinks they will not become European.
“They would have to change everything. They only have three out of the twelve points they need to join the EU” (These are the 12 points…)
“Also, you yourself you just told me you did not knew where to place the country on a map before coming here last year, so you see…”
True, I said that…
“All in all, I think outside the progressive big cities, people are either pro-Russian or just do not care”
…
I was experiencing a big impression that everything would stay their worse same. Neither E. nor her Swedish boyfriend would think that Georgia would be part of Europe one day. She was seeing the Russian side, deeply entrenched in the population outside of the cities. He was seeing how the European people would just don’t care about a small country without a shared border with EU.
The opposition chosen strategy was to gather evidence of election fraud, but it could very well be that Georgian Dream had simply won unfair and square.
All the opposition was now demanding (or asking) the annulment of the votes done electronically with the machines. One could see on the back of the ballot box who had voted for what because of the thinness of the paper. The EU seemed to lean toward greatly delaying the candidacy process.
And I was thinking that if we could manage to make the Parisian hipsters of the terrasse fans of Georgian Wine, we could have a chance to get people concerned about the fate of this little piece of Europe, lost in the middle of Russia, Middle East and Asia…
From the West
I was on my way to listen to some rumours and whispers from around EU institutions.
I was frankly wondering what they were thinking about. Were they expecting the victory of the opposition? Were they thinking that Georgia joining Europe was possible? How could one work with Georgian Dream? How could one fight the foreign influences when one was oneself a foreign influence? Elections in a non-democratic country, what could it mean? What do we do know? We can’t just let them down.
They knew about the problem. And they knew also about Georgian wine, so we considered appropriate to have a glass of it.
And yes, they were clearly expecting the opposition would win and the slap in the face was hard.
“Before the question was what will happen, now it is just ‘what did happen?’”
They can’t officially have their own observers. “So, we cannot see nothing first hand.” They must rely on ODIHR almost exclusively. “I know you don’t think that what they say in their communiqué is strong but actually it is!”
I did not asked the question. The only way they could new what I was thinking about that communiqué was because everybody was thinking it.
“Election day was generally procedurally well-organised and administered in an orderly manner but marked by a tense environment”
It was official, and was a bit hard to swallow. Georgian Dream was playing the fact that the international observers did not say the election was not “free and fair”. So, if the EU is not saying it was not Free and Fair, the EU thinks that it was free and fair right?
“We NEVER say an election is Free and Fair, we can’t qualify the results!” Foreign interference, remember? What would it look like, the EU institutions judging the results of an election? “We can’t also say it is legitimate or not legitimate”. Same reason.
They need proof. “So, we put the emphasis on collecting evidence.” Which explains why the oppositions chose that strategy.
They were however seriously asking themselves how much Georgian Dream victory was the owing to violations. That was the big realisation from these elections. “GD propaganda works. Even if we don’t want to admit it”.
For example, the fraud with the thinness of the ballot box allowing to see who had voted for what by looking at the back of the ballot, this was compromising the vote secrecy and, yes, harming the election process. It was the biggest claim of the opposition to invalidate the elections. But it is impossible to know what influence it had on voters, and what percentage of vote it got to Georgian Dream. It was impossible to put Georgian Dream victory on that… Georgian Dream simply also appeals to people. Their narratives worked.
“They live next to Russia; people do not want a war”. It was easy to scare people with crazy fascist Putin as a neighbour. “Opposition they did not even respond to Georgian Dream narratives. They just campaigned on geopolitics”.
Also, Georgian Dream, by not aligning completely on the sanctions against Russia, managed to make it benefit to Georgia economy. “From an economic point of view, and even if they did not reject the sanctions, they benefited from Ukraine.” New transit routes, some level of bypass, travel and tourism…
Georgian Dream also had some supporters. Public servants and not just for paying their salaries, “also rural areas, minorities…”
It was kind of strange to see EU institutions realising, after it happened, what my little Russian waitress travelling from Siberia with no money knew all along…
They were upset against the opposition. Just like everyone else I guess…
“They misled us. The president, the Opposition, they convinced everybody they would win, and they had not prepared for the scenario where they would lose.”
One thing the EU knows how to do very well anywhere is to create an EU bubble for itself. And almost certainly the opposition had no backup plan to provide to the EU bubble because to the opposition, the EU bubble was supposed to be the backup plan… Now everybody was in severe depression and disillusioned.
“The 89% pro-EU, where are they? Everybody is citing this poll showing 89% of Georgian siding for EU integration, then again, Georgian Dream had won the elections.”
So, what was the explanation for that? “The only explanation is that they are pro EU and pro GD”. And again, Georgian Dream propaganda and lies had indeed won. People could be pro-Europe AND pro Georgian Dream. I would say I’m pretty sure at this point people in this country can be Pro-Russia and pro-EU, but they don’t believe me.
The president had spoken about “Russian special operation” and “hybrid warfare” waged against Georgian.
“She should not do that without proof. It is not good to say that to people without proof.”
I could not agree more.
“She says that without proof but how do we prove Russian Interference? Even in the US with all the research and institutes it was very hard to prove…”
Again, could not agree more. But…
I believe that, even though the president was speaking at a press conference right after the elections, and surrounded by all the opposition leaders, these words were not meant for the Georgian people.
These are the keywords needed to call for action from the EU institutions. Shout loud “Russian Hybrid Warfare”, if you want to get everybody deeply concerned and mobilised to fight. If you shout anything else no one listens.
President also blamed “the use of modern technologies to whitewash the elections.” If you add “AI” somewhere you also got more ears.
This is a desperate call for EU institutions to do something. Zourabichvili is directly appealing to anything EU has against disinformation to act.
Now would be a good time to decide: All this disinfo thing, the programs, the policies, the declarations, was it serious business and real policy that can be used to help Georgia? Or was it only and entirely a complete scam like this one ?
Are we serious about getting Georgia in the EU anyway? Can we integrate them?
Question is not as easy as it may seem, and it brings out multiple sub questions… Firstly, they need to understand what happened and what it means. Then…
“Do we engage with Georgian Dream?” and if they do, how?
Since June there is apparently no contact whatsoever between the two. Also, Joining EU is not exactly a negotiation but a candidacy.
“If they want to join EU it is on our terms, and they say they want to join EU but on their terms.”
The problem is not about a border or not a border, the question is more about that “it is becoming Eurasia. We are in the middle of a corridor between east and west”. Again, the crossroad between four continents that makes everything mixed and intertwined…
“EU asks for all or nothing. One has to align economy, policy…” Not easy to do when your neighbour is Putin the bully.
Also, the situation is completely unprecedented. “There is no precedent of taking away candidacy.” They can only adjust. “In the engagement report we asked for three points: Investigation, repeal the laws on foreign agents and LGBTQ, stop the anti-Eu rhetoric”. These are not completely unreasonable request.
“We are not forcing anyone to join EU.”
Yet, what happened is still difficult to comprehend. This whole authoritarian drift in a country that seem so young and progressive. “Civil society is so vibrant!” (we said “vibrant” at the same time because it is so true and obvious it almost became a cliché).
“Now all people are talking about leaving”.
Georgians were on their way to become EU, had economic growth, had normalised relation with Russia and still were liked by the EU, an incredibly dynamic and vibrant civil society, brilliant youth, they had everything “from there to where we are now, how did we come to that?”
Now the problem is that they can’t really let it slide. There need to be some kind of answer to what happened, even if no one understands fully what exactly happened yet. “A candidate having this kind of election we cannot accept that.” What message does it sends to Serbia, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania?
“We can not act like this is business as usual”.
But they are stuck. They can’t really declare the election illegitimate after having recognised their legitimacy in the hope the opposition would win. They can not really pronounce against the legitimacy of the election and pretend that they are not foreign interfering. “And if we don’t say the elections are illegitimate, how do we not engage?”
“The big thing in the balance are the visas”.
This is the heaviest tool that EU can use against Georgian Dream: to repel the agreement that let Georgians travel visa free in the EU. However, if Georgian Dream goes full authoritarian against the civil society and activists can’t flee because the visa free agreement has been repelled, what will happen to them …?
“So, we wait and see…” wait for the new EU political landscape, for the new government in the US… let’s just hope it is not Trump. “The chance we have is that even if it is Trump he has no idea where to put Georgia on a map so he will not care what happens there”.
I am not so sure. I fear Viktor Orban will rush to Trump to tell him where it is on the map, and why it is very important to support fascism there.
In any case waiting is the worst strategy but the only one they got for the moment. “We have one party that has the parliament, the government… The president’s mandate is over next month so they will have the president, and next year there is local elections…” and seeing how they mastered these elections, one can bet they will win municipalities. They also have the judiciary and independent institutions…
And this is why they do not want to join EU.
“Why do they not want to benefit from the EU one may ask” Because benefiting from the EU means democratic reform that would end up in Georgian Dream losing power.
“They want to stay in power, so if they want to join EU, they will have to let go the judiciary, independent institutions, alternate power…”
The reforms that EU asks will result in authoritarian Georgian Dream giving up Georgia. There is no middle ground between Democracy and Authoritarianism, one can’t really have both.
Ivanishvili is the real ruler of Georgia. “it’s all about him protecting his money”.
Ivanishvili is a businessman, and Georgia is his biggest investment. “He invested a lot, he created loyalties.” And being raised by Russia he probably has kompromat or blackmail material on everybody. He is not ready to let that go away.
What will he do now?
“He does not have to ban the opposition they banned themselves by refusing to sit in the parliament”.
Some organisations shoot themselves in the foot, like the ISFED (International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy), who had vowed to verify the election results with a statistical methodology, the PVT (Parallel Vote Count), that ended up into confirming the election results they have to contest. The ISFED had to issue a communiqué saying the Parallel Vote Count was confirming Georgian Dream victory of the election but refused to release the detail PVT data. Georgian Dream was playing that note as much as they could claiming an international conspiracy trying to hide the proofs of their victory…
Again what would you do if you had to get rid of an undemocratic government with democratic means? What tools can you use to fix the truth and reality of these elections on your side instead of the enemy? Demonstrations, statistics, complaints, international institutions, popular vote, pray to technology and hope they can’t rig voting machines…
Then again, we can’t just sit and do nothing. “We can’t let this country slide into authoritarianism”. They put their hopes that Georgia need for economic growth will prevent Georgia from fully falling into dictatorship. “If they want a strong economy and to be a bridge between east and west, they can’t really let it go full authoritarianism”.
It is not completely unfounded. Georgian Dream will want to maintain ties with EU democracy as much as they wanted to maintain ties with Russian authoritarianism.
Outlook looks grim but no one knows what the future holds.
“Georgia is a country that keeps surprising people.”
I love how, despite everything, this small country continues to inspire hopes and dream of democracy…
I’m finishing my glass of wine, taking a taxi that will navigate in traffic for 45 minutes and head back to have drinks with friends in the middle of Halloween night…
Be afraid of the Garlic Chacha
