Can we breathe yet? (episode 4)
Election day
Russian influence, election monitoring, election meddling, Foreign Interference, propaganda, disinformation, European policy, Transparency, democracy… In the world of OSINT and Disinformation, we are using all these words in every report, study, research, briefing or LinkedIn posts. But in Georgia, it was really happening, with real people, all of this and all at once. It would happen not on the internet, not on networks, not AI or Twitter, but on billboards in the streets, in physical polling stations, in a real parliament, in demonstrations.
So, we went to spend two weeks in Tbilisi, one before the elections, one after. This is a subjective view, in multi-episodes, of what I saw and understood.
This is a tale about European style democracy fighting Russian style authoritarianism in a small country at the crossroad of four continents.
Thanks, Eva Bauchau, for context, expertise, contacts and on-site support.
This is Episode 4, previous episode here
They raided Sopo’s place, took her computer and phone, no one can reach her. The Georgian authorities are “investigating” on Sopo’s employer, the Atlantic Council. Two days before the vote. Sopo’s husband is also an opposition activist so, two birds, one stone.
Small moment of panic with Eva, given the fact that we ate with Sopo two days before and if they seize her last conversations, we are in it.
Short-term panic…
But we know how to maintain good morale and not slide into disarray.
Can they find us? Yes
What can they do to us if they find us? In all likelihood, and by adding together all doomsday scenarios, they can:
Come get us at the Hotel (Fabrika being a Tbilisian gothico-hipsterism temple, filled with young Georgians openly dreaming of getting Georgian Dream out of Georgia, this could produce funny YouTube videos.
Search our phones and computers. Well…
Sitting us in a plane by force and sending us back earlier than initially planned, and forbid us to set foot in the country until they are in power (so, for three days according to the last polls)
Maybe a night in a cell that would make a very good story and, for Eva, a good opportunity to perfect the language.
All this, being the worst.
“Never underestimates the incompetence of post-sovietic security services” says Eva devouring Khinkalis.
I don’t know Georgian financial police but for having met Sopo, she is not going to make it easy for them.
The day before was a calm day. And tense.
I tried to go to a demonstration called by three organisations on Facebook, and which was supposed to happen in front of the parliament. Total failure. There was a very small group of a dozen of activists, for as much relaxed policemen observing them, and again as many journalists waiting to see if something would happen.
It is still a bit frightening. Interior minister announced the acquisition of new water cannons, and, more broadly, Georgian Dream has plainly announced a big wave of repression on the opposition if they win the elections.
They have a list of locations that will be considered national security on election day and in front of which it is strictly forbidden to demonstrate. Oddly, the parliament is not on the list.
The night before, beer drinking and testing “Chacha”, the local alcohol. It’s made from I don’t know what, but tastes a blend of Arak and Grappa, and that is swallowed in one shot and by shoving a slice of orange after to make the thing go by. Not exactly tasty but of formidable efficacy to bring people together. French, Lebanese, Azerbaijanis, Israelis, Egyptian. It is thanks to M., Lebanese of origin, stuck in Georgia in a never-ending loop of renewing his initial 5 days stay, and who ended up by meeting a lot of people in four month and he loves mixing them together.
Election day
2pm: 22,22% of participation. Frauds, attempts or incidents in 9% of the voting stations according to ISFED.
It rains and it is sunny at the same time…
Everything looks calm. In front of a voting station, a dozen of people are queuing outside to vote. It is three times more than the number of delivery men waiting outside the McDonalds. Another good sign I guess…
The observers are recounting exceptional numbers of violations of all sorts. Also, the observers monitoring the violations are themselves in an exceptional number. The more people out there to collect data, the more data you will collect…
In front of the parliament, no specific measures seem to have been taken. Also, nothing special in front of Georgia Dream offices on Rustaveli. They do not seem worried, but they do not seem to prepare a huge party.
5pm, 50% of voters
6pm
“We detected one homophobic deepfake about the leader of the opposition party and a journalist saying they were together kissing. And another one from Russian channels but difficult to verify, it is about a Georgian former member of the Azov battalion in Ukraine coming back to Georgia” (to Open the famous second front I guess).
It is Tamar Kintsurashvili who briefed me.
I climbed back (because Tbilisi is a city in which one has to climb) up to the new offices of the MDF where I am warmly welcomed.
Two rooms. One of “watchdogs” and one of fact-checkers. In the fact-checkers room they are 13 around a big table. The mood is very good. Tense, hardworking but good. They laugh and they work. “Fighting fakes”. On their website, mythdetector, they produce articles.
Pro Government radio is broadcasting manipulated polls. Actually “Methodologically misleading”. I love fact checkers because, contrary to a tenacious myth, they never do “true / fake”, but they always have half a dozen of categories and definitions to categorise the false.
Here they use “Misleading; Altered Content; Deepfake; False and Satire”. Satire they use it only if someone jokes but the joke is taken seriously. (otherwise, it is useless). (It is very important to know what to do with satire when you work disinformation.)
“How do you fact check the Tass report saying that a Georgian from the Azov battalion came into Georgia to pay protesters?” I ask.
“This one was really hard. We tried to call the interior ministry to see if they can confirm someone with the same name entered the country. But they had no info. It is impossible to verify so we will publish it on “overview of Russian media.” Another category.
So, the “methodologically misleading” poll is quite sneaky. They ask two different questions: “who do you vote for” and “who do you think will win the elections”. Then they can cook the two questions together and Georgian Dreams skyrockets because everybody expects them to rig the elections, so people answer that they will win. It’s not called a lie if you manipulate the reality to be right all the time.
And of course, it is forbidden to broadcast polls before the closing of the voting stations. “We follow the best European standards” points out Tamar. Georgian Dream does not care.
London and Madrid are extending the time for voting because of the queuing outside voting stations. “It is a good sign.” Tamar says to me “Usually, people abroad are more anti-government. But one time in Poland I met a Georgian taxi driver, he was fan of Stalin!” She laughs.
Mariveli polling station was temporarily closed. It is the station where was shot the famous ballot stuffing video
It is really less an anguish than for the last election in France. Right before the results, and with the certainty of the far-right victory, I could barely breath. Here they fact-check and they joke. Georgians are uniquely brave, let it be known.
“They will be celebrating but it does not mean that they have won
- Yeah, election in Georgia is about who will celebrate victory first
- Now they are making statements saying ‘we are going to win but we need more vote to ensure constitutional majority’”
They laugh.
Sviki comes to take me from the factcheckers room, brings me and my notebook to the “watchdog” room, pulls me a chair and sits me on it, right next to a watchdog. Sviki barely speaks English, has tied a flashy yellow scarf around his head like a turban, and he coordinates between factcheckers, the watchdogs, and another room of watchdogs.
He is one hell of an activist.
In front of me, three girls and one guy are going from laptop to phone. In the other room, four other people. They are lawyers and NGO activists from various organisations. DRS institute, NGOs for protecting minorities, and I don’t even manage to write all their names. Next to me is Shota who explains to me what all this is about and what are the “watchdogs”.
“We are a coalition of NGOs answering the observation missions. We try to crowd source the observation missions in 1000 electoral districts.”
Plenty of young Georgian volunteered themselves in observation missions. “We created like an improvised call centre for them. They tell us about violations, we tell them to record it properly and to send us the videos and pictures as evidence. Then we help them to file an appeal.”
Of course, the electoral commission can reject an appeal if it is not properly filed. “It is complicated, some violation they have to be appealed immediately. So, we send them a draft complaint so they can submit it.”
Obviously, the Central Electoral Commission does not seem too happy with accepting claims of violations. “So, when they don’t, we try to appeal to superior bodies”. The discussions are made via WhatsApp.
Shota shows me one of the evidence videos he just received. An executive from Georgian Dream party is in his car, parked inside the precinct (which is forbidden), with a list of names to check them out if they have been voting.
Here also, very good mood. Studious and laughing. One can hear the clinking of keyboards, people proofreading aloud the drafts or coordinating for a phone call, a small pop music coming out of a computer speakers in the next room.
Somewhere around 7pm.
We go for a smoke on the balcony with Shota.
“I don’t know what will happen.”
“We have a big problem in Georgia of government accepting to lose. The last time it happened it was in 2012, and it was a huge victory for the Georgian people”. (it is how Georgian Dream came into power…)
“Now I don’t imagine the prime minister accepting to step down”. The future is completely uncertain. He does not rule out Civil War as a possible scenario, but this is more to show me the extent of the unknown.
He bewares Western Europe and does not fully trust that Europe won’t simply abandon Georgia to its fate. I recall Emmanuel Macron inviting Putin to Versailles Castle as his very first act of foreign diplomacy, so these are not crazy thoughts.
“This is why we are siding with Ukraine, and we attach ourselves to the fate of Ukraine.”
Roco, smoking next to us, has family members in some very poor mountain regions of Georgia, where there are enormous amounts of public servants. “In some region you can have 17 000 people and 11 000 of them will be on a government contract!”
Georgian Dream ordered all public servants to vote for them or to lose their jobs. “This is basic bribery”. People have to send pictures of their ballot papers as proofs.
I ask Shota if he trusts the voting machines. “I am really not anti-technology, but for voting machines, the trust is not there yet you know?”
Cheering and laughing spread out to the office. “We just learned that Georgian Dream had reserved a few restaurants in Tbilisi and were planning fireworks to celebrate their victory and they just cancelled that”.
In French it is called “reboucher le champagne”
The 1st rumours of results start to come and show 40% for Georgian Dream. “It is what one can see in the streets. If you ask ten people in the street you will never find more than 3 who are for Georgian Dream” tells me Roco.
From what I get, demonstrations will more likely happen tomorrow. “People who went out in the regions to vote will have to come back to Tbilisi”.
19h30, the atmosphere starts to seriously become cheerful in the office. Mariam gets her European flag and wears it as a scarf.
Shota gets videos from New York where the vote is extended, and people are cheering. There was the fear that, because of the cold, people would get back to their home and find station closed when they come back.
One asks if I want a coffee. Two times in a row. I politely decline as I am already high on stress. Still, I’ll go for a green tea.
19h45. Suddenly the office is incredibly calm and silent again, and people are going to get coffees. One hears clinking of keyboards and WhatsApp notification sounds. In the background, the sound of live reporting media coming out the speakers of a computer.
MDF crew went out to get chips and snacks and starts to install it in the big room where there is the TV screen.
19H50, people start to move around. It is in 10 minutes. Joking and laughing. I’m with my green tea.
19h59 Everybody gets into the big room in front of the TV. There is a countdown before the “exit polls” (in English in the original language).
20h00 the results are on display.
Outburst of joy.
40% for Georgian Dream.
We won…
We switch to check pro-government channels via YouTube displayed on the big screen. They are showing their own exit polls that show 56% for Georgian Dream. Everybody laughs. Georgian Dream leaders are congratulating themselves but they clearly pull a face.
“Can you imagine how happy we are? After everything they have done to us in 12 years!”
D., that I met a few days before, has joined the office. “They threw everything they can. In my village where I went to vote, these young people from a local gang were talking to everyone and intimidating people.”
A girl cries. Tears of joy. She was just on the phone with her young 16 year old niece who had been in all the demonstrations. It’s very emotional.
Hungarian fascist Orban, a bit hasty, already sent a congratulation tweet to the Georgian Dream.
I meet Victor. A French with Georgian origins who came to help them, on his unemployment. He works in NGOs normally. “Can you imagine in France, the ruling party announcing his win at 6pm, two hours before the end of the vote?” He has invited some French journalists to come to the office because he wants Georgian activists to have a media reach. Sviki pours us wine.
The girls are laughing because one of them received a message from a friend saying, “what is happening, why is everybody celebrating”. “It is Georgia” they tell me “It is custom, everybody is celebrating victory”.
“Do you think they will accept to lose?” I ask. “I don’t know. It is the first time it happens.” Actually, nobody ever saw Georgian Dream loosing…
“Are you relieved?” I ask. Because I see them breathing a little.
“No” they laugh. “We wait for the CEC results.” (the Central Electoral Commission, in charge of organising the elections). “And then we will wait for the results from the foreign countries. And then… It’s going to be the whole weekend. But we are Georgians, we are used to that.”
They tell me how they started to protest with “The Bassiani protests”, the first big protest against this government. This just confirms my theory and experience that nightlife and clubbing are political.
One plugs back the giant screen. The Central Electoral Commission is making its first statement. There is not as many people in the room as there was for the exit polls at 8pm.
The CEC just announced, based on 68% on the votes counted, the preliminary results.
52% for the government.
No one really seems worried. I ask Shota. “They send first the results of the districts who are pro-government. So, you send first the positive results for the government, it is traditional. We expect them to significantly change and to drop down.”
10h00pm.
The CEC announced having counted more than 90% of the votes and Georgian Dream has 52%.
I ask if they trust the CEC, their answer is no.
Smiles are blown away. One puts away the EU and Georgian flags. Faces are sad and dark.
A girl cries. Not of joy. Her friends and colleagues are coming to comfort her.
It is the beginning of another hard struggle.
Everybody gets back home. Nobody wants to celebrate anything. My neighbour launched his turned base war strategy videogame.
Cold shower. So, we had lost. Just like that…
Now with the midnight perspective it was just obvious. A rigged election is a rigged election, by the very definition of the thing, you shall not win it with an honest vote.
A giant leap into the unknown. Or even worse, a leap into the unknown that they already know too well.
It is impossible that they win. That we let them win.
One would recount the votes manually, but it will not change anything. 52%, they were supposed to have 40% top, and that was with the rigging…
What is an election? A moment where a society decides its fate, gets divided, makes a peaceful transition of power, then reconciles. Here there was not any of that. Society did not seem at all divided, its pro-European future was perfectly clear, no transition of power happened, and nothing was peaceful. And there will be no reconciling obviously…
At midnight in the bar we hear rejoice screams, cheering and loud applause throughout all the bars and agitating Georgian flags! Something just happened…
“UFC won man!” the barman tells me happily. Maybe the night was not over. Maybe some hope! I don’t know this UFC coalition but maybe, just maybe…
The Georgian fighter Ilia Topuria had just won the Ultimate Fight Championship.